Soy de los que tiene una visión oscura de la economía en los próximos meses (quizás 2 años)
Sin embargo, también sostengo que para latinoamerica puede ser una gran oportunidad dado que es la primera crisis en los ultimos 50 años que nos toca sin debilidades macroeconómicas mayores a la vista y en general con stock de reservas en los bancos centrales y economías que aunque lentamente, han desarrollado su capital productivo (además del sector primario o extractivo) en los ultimos años.
En resumen, la crisis significaría la posibilidad de acercarnos a los países desarrollados toda vez que los mismos van a frenar o detener su avance. Desde recepción de capitales buscando oportunidades mas rentables, hasta adquisicion de compañias a buenos precios, pasando por la posibilidad de aprovechar para hacer inversiones de mediano plazo como por ejemplo en infraestructura y energía que nos permitan una mejor posición cuando pase el temblor.
Leyendo mis feeds diarios, encontre estas reflexiones de Dani Rodrik, un amigo de latinoamerica, alguien que ha investigado el desarrollo y ha contribuido teóricamente en el análisis de la región.
Es muy interesante su visión, que aunque no es concluyente, sugiere optimismo.
The first is between the entrepreneur and the financier. The super-rich get that way by one of two routes. They either inherit their wealth from their parents, or they build a business from scratch and then sell it off to a larger entity. In either case, the financiers play an important supporting role: they help maintain and grow the wealth generated by the family business and they arrange the deals that allow the multi-billion dollar takeovers. But it was evident at the meeting that they get no respect from the entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs view financiers as people with no understanding of business, who are as likely to ruin them as help them grow. We generate the jobs, the wealth, and take all the risk, they say. If we fail, no-one bails us out. Financiers, on the other hand...
The second dividing line today is between the pessimism that pervades the U.S. and Europe and the pervasive optimism of entrepreneurs from emerging (emerged?) nations. The financial crisis that is still growing has left business people from the advanced nations in a very dark mood. Whether a recession is around the corner, or has already arrived, no-one in the first world thinks 2008 is going to be a good year. It is all shades of pessimism.
But if you talk to businessmen (alas they were all men) from India, Russia, China, Turkey or the Gulf States, you would hardly know that we have just experienced a credit market freeze-out in the West. They are all ho-hum about it. Yeah, we could shave a point or two off our growth estimates, they say, if the U.S. goes into a deep recession, but it's no big deal--and can you pass the wine please. Indians are saying we don't rely that much on exports anyhow; the Chinese are relying on their growing middle class; and others have their own stories.
Is this the famous "decoupling" at work? Will this be the beginning of a new era of the world economy, with several key developing countries, the BRICs and the N-11 (using the faddish terms that attach to them), gaining real ascendancy over their Western counterparts?
Probably not. But something interesting is going on.
